Analysis | Harris has super-charged Democratic hopes of taking the House (2024)

In today’s edition … Vance’s Catholic conversion is part of a young conservative movement … How Kamala Harris’s early career prepared her for this moment … but first …

Down-ballot Democrats plot 2024 gains

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) was nowhere to be found earlier this month as President Biden quietly joked about his age and defiantly declared he would not let anyone “push me out of this race” at a low-key rally in Baldwin’s hometown of Madison, just days after an uncharacteristically bad debate sent Democrats spiraling and forced lawmakers running in competitive races to distance themselves from the president.

But just a few days ago, the two-term senator, who faces a tough reelection battle of her own, was beaming as she spoke before Vice President Harris in front of a roaring crowd of re-energized Democrats in West Allis.

The scene underscores the feeling of cautious optimism that’s boosting Democratic candidates all the way down the ballot in the eight days since Biden stepped aside. Now that Harris has an opportunity to introduce herself to a Democratic base re-energized by her candidacy, congressional Democrats are starting to see a path to victory with less than 100 days until Election Day, even as Republicans are organizing themselves around a new line of attacks they hope will tie Democrats to Harris’s past positions, Marianna reports with our colleague Liz Goodwin.

While House and Senate Democratic candidates were running ahead of Biden down ballot over the past month, Democrats feared that a depressed base would result in historically low voter turnout, which is critical in swing districts where elections are determined at the margins. But over the past eight days, the once-depressed Democratic base has awakened, helping amass more money and a volunteer army down-ballot.

Democratic lawmakers remain shocked by the outpouring of enthusiasm that has re-energized their base. It helped to quickly mend tensions last week between pro-Biden lawmakers and Democrats who called on Biden to step aside after those harboring feelings over how the past month was handled coalesced behind Harris.

Harris’s opportunity to define herself

Democratic strategists running Senate and House campaigns noted an abrupt shift in messaging as soon as Biden, 81, passed the baton to Harris, 59, from an operation focused on the president’s record the last four years to a campaign leaning into the future with slogans like “We’re not going back.”

House Democrats also see the future-forward messaging as a welcome change, cheering on Harris as she embraced “freedom” as a core tenet, and noted her sharper messaging compared to Biden on abortion rights and other issues.

Harris’s strengths have presidential strategists hoping that Sun Belt states including Nevada, Arizona and Georgia may be back in play after the Biden campaign had begun to write them off. That is welcome news for Democrats running for the Senate there: Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.) and Sen. Jacky Rosen (Nev.). Democrats also believe Harris’s candidacy will help incumbents in the “Blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, states Democrats historically have won to secure the White House.

In the red states of Ohio and Montana, where Sens. Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester are fighting for their political lives, it’s less clear that Democrats will be aided by Harris at the top of the ticket.

Democrats say Harris must use this opportunity to reintroduce herself to a public that does not know much about her as Republicans are sharpening their attacks.

Many swing-district Democrats — which represent districts with an almost evenly split mix of Democratic, Republican and independent voters — are telling Harris’s campaign that she needs to run to the center rather than appeal to the far-left.

Republicans to promote Harris’s liberal record

Democrats are battling deep dissatisfaction among voters with inflation and the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the border. It’s why Republican strategists are not shying away from telling candidates to tie their opponent to Harris, who is intrinsically tied to Biden.

Republican campaign strategists said they plan on telling voters about Harris’s liberal record as a “San Francisco radical” — as National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) put it — to emphasize that she would only make America worse off than Biden has, who has been considered a more centrist Democrat throughout his career.

While Republicans sharpen their attack lines, the latest influx of cash by Democrats is something keeping them up at night. Democratic campaigns outraising Republicans negatively affected House Republicans’ attempts to win more competitive seats during the 2022 midterms and a similar effect could happen this year.

What we’re watching

On the trail

There are 99 days until Election Day. Harris will travel to Georgia on Tuesday — her sixth visit to the state this year. We’ll be watching her veepstakes.

Trump will travel to Harrisburg, Pa. on Wednesday.

On Capitol Hill

The Senate will vote on final passage of the Kids Online Safety Act and the Children and Teens’ Online Privacy Protection Act 2.0, two bills to set guidelines for children online.

The House is out until September.

The White House

The president will travel to Austin where he will visit the LBJ Presidential Library and deliver remarks and commemorate the 60th Anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, legislation that President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law.

The trip was postponed from two weeks ago after the attempted assassination of Trump.

There have been many comparisons between Biden and Johnson’s 1968 reelection campaign, where he also dropped out. We’re watching to see if Biden addresses the comparisons.

The campaign

Vance’s Catholic conversion is part of young conservative movement

JD Vance, the senator from Ohio who is now the GOP’s vice-presidential nominee, was baptized Catholic in 2019 after being raised nominally evangelical and then dabbling with atheism.

“In his conversion, he is part of a cohort of rising young conservative figures who are bucking the general trend of young Americans to reject institutional religion — and many, experts say, are choosing Catholicism,” The Washington Post’s Michelle Boorstein writes. “Catholicism, religion analysts say, exudes the confidence and staying power of a two-millennia-old hierarchical institution — not to mention the world’s biggest church — at a time when so much seems unstable.”

The same thirst is driving rising Catholic interest in the Latin Mass, where conservative views on theology are common, and is also reflected in the priesthood, which has gone from the majority being very or somewhat liberal theologically and politically until the 1970s to majority conservative today.

Vance has said he looked for a philosophy that incorporated doubt, embraced scientific advancements like the theory of evolution and also came from somewhere “more ancient.”

“But Vance’s Catholicism, like that of many church members including President Biden, lines up with Catholic teaching only in limited — but very different — ways,” Michelle writes. “Vance supports the death penalty in some cases, wants to boost fossil fuels, wants to deport millions of migrants and has voted against many government programs aimed at aiding the poor. All of those positions are in opposition to his church.”

Republicans ask if Trump’s VP bet will pay off

“Trump listened as each person made their case, but they said the former president said his gut had been with Vance for many weeks, if not months — liking his Rust Belt upbringing, foreign and economic policy positions, pugnacious TV appearances, and academic pedigree,” our colleagues write. “Vance had influential backers, including Donald Trump Jr. and tech billionaires.”

How Kamala Harris’s early career prepared her for this moment

The Post’s Reis Thebault takes a look at Harris’s early career as a prosecutor and her approach as San Francisco district attorney, and how that role shaped who she is now.

While she was running for DA, Harris branded her approach “smart on crime” in an attempt to balance law enforcement and liberal values, Reis writes. She opposed capital punishment and called herself a “progressive,” yet the San Francisco Chronicle’s endorsem*nt still declared she was “for Law and Order.”

“As Harris assumes the role of Democrats’ likely presidential nominee, those who worked with her and campaigned against her in California say her time in the crucible of her hometown’s politics could be both blessing and burden come November,” Reis writes.

The Media

Must-reads from The Post:

And from across the web:

Viral

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